Honest football
match predictions
Calibrated probabilities for upcoming matches, built from expected-goals data and Monte Carlo simulation. Statistical estimates, not opinion - measured against real results, and we publish the score.
In development
HeXaGoal is in development and not yet open to the public. We are not naming a release date, because there is not one to name.
What the model does, and how we hold ourselves to it, is on the About page.
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Calibrated
When we say 65% home win, it should win 65% of similar games - not 60%, not 70%.
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Transparent
We publish our Brier Score and reliability curves next to the predictions themselves. Judge for yourself.
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Private
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